Thursday, March 19, 2009

Hillary-McCain crossover polls are consistent with earlier polls

According to Wikipedia, McCain's popular vote was 59,934,814, call it 60 million. 16% of that, the Hillary crossovers, is ... 9.6 million.

In the primaries, 18 million voted for Hillary. 35% of them, ie 6.3 million, said in primary exit polls that they would not support Obama. Phone polls that counted both Hillary-to-McCain voters and stay homes in May, June, and August iirc were pretty close to the primary exit polls. Breakdowns showed about 3 million planning to vote for McCain, 4 million planning to stay home.

43% of these voters who supported McCain but would have backed Clinton if she were in the race described themselves as Independents. 31% were Republicans; while 26% were Democrats. [CBS story cited previously]

26% of 9.6 million is 2.5 million. Add a few from the Independents who got polled as Hillary supporters during the summer and there's the same 3 million Hill's voting for McCain. So here's three different kinds of pollings that come up with figures all in the same ball park. That suggests that these three pollings were pretty reliable. The Republicans who preferred Hillary were unexpected gravy. 

This is evidence for Hillary being in fact the more electable candidate than Obama -- and for 9.6 million people, the more credible leader.


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