Thursday, March 19, 2009

Hillary-McCain crossover polls are consistent with earlier polls

According to Wikipedia, McCain's popular vote was 59,934,814, call it 60 million. 16% of that, the Hillary crossovers, is ... 9.6 million.

In the primaries, 18 million voted for Hillary. 35% of them, ie 6.3 million, said in primary exit polls that they would not support Obama. Phone polls that counted both Hillary-to-McCain voters and stay homes in May, June, and August iirc were pretty close to the primary exit polls. Breakdowns showed about 3 million planning to vote for McCain, 4 million planning to stay home.

43% of these voters who supported McCain but would have backed Clinton if she were in the race described themselves as Independents. 31% were Republicans; while 26% were Democrats. [CBS story cited previously]

26% of 9.6 million is 2.5 million. Add a few from the Independents who got polled as Hillary supporters during the summer and there's the same 3 million Hill's voting for McCain. So here's three different kinds of pollings that come up with figures all in the same ball park. That suggests that these three pollings were pretty reliable. The Republicans who preferred Hillary were unexpected gravy. 

This is evidence for Hillary being in fact the more electable candidate than Obama -- and for 9.6 million people, the more credible leader.

3 comments:

Anonymous said...

Hello everyone! Who knows where to upload the film Avatar?
I even bought the film Avatar for a SMS to http://rsskino.ru/kinofilm/avatar.html , the link was, but download fails, the system will boot quite strange cocoa something.
Men, advise where to normal as quickly download film avatar?

Anonymous said...

I sell a boat-program which will help you to outwit auction and to win, initially the boat was created for the Scandinavian auction http://internet-aukcion.ru/ but now the program can work with similar auctions: gagen ru, vezetmne ru and with ten.
The program-boat stakes for you, i.e. for this purpose it is not necessary to sit constantly at the monitor. The boat can set time when it is necessary to stake, thus you as much as possible will lower expenses for rates, and as much as possible increase the chances of a victory.

The price of the program a boat for the Scandinavian auctions 20$

For the first 10 clients the price 15$

To all clients free updating and support.

Behind purchases I ask in icq: 588889590 Max.

Anonymous said...

[b]Set software LoveBots v 5.2[/b]

All for a mass mailing dating http://24lux.ru/

The script is written in php5

Features:

[i]registration, account activation
manual input captures, or the solution through antikapchu
filling data accounts:
- Gulf desired photo
- Инфы about yourself
- Diary
- Sexual preference[/i]

gulyalka on questionnaires spammer on lichku
- Randomization Posts: replacement of Russian letters in Latin analogues

optimized to work in a continuous loop
check-activation-filling-spam check ..

Updates and support free of charge.

Price per set 100 wmz

For the first 10 buyers price 70 wmz (your feedback on the software).

For shopping I ask in icq: 588889590 Max.

Scrin program:

[IMG]http://i066.radikal.ru/1002/9d/a7a68e8c96ee.jpg[/IMG]

[IMG]http://i054.radikal.ru/1002/19/9db76967c0e5.jpg[/IMG]

[IMG]http://s003.radikal.ru/i202/1002/24/20716e86512e.jpg[/IMG]

Flooding in the subject no! Write to feedback after the purchase.