Thursday, March 19, 2009

Nov 4 exit polls: Hillary would have won bigger 

CBS News’ Election and Survey Unit’s survey analyst extraordinaire Jennifer De Pinto [....]
As voters left the polls on Election Day, many were asked how they would have voted if the election match-up were between Hillary Clinton and John McCain rather than Barack Obama and McCain. 52 percent said they would have backed the former Democratic candidate; 41 percent would have voted for McCain, wider than Obama’s 7-point margin over McCain.  

Interestingly, 16 percent of McCain voters said they would have voted for Clinton, the Democrat, if she had been her party’s nominee.  

I don't know which exit polls you consider not reliable and how you would compare their methodology with this. Iirc exit polls from the later primaries showed about 35% of HIllary supporters were planning to not support Obama in November (those did not break down the number who would actually vote for McCain from those who would stay home). Pls note that the Nov 4 story calculated in the factor of Obama supporters who would have stayed home, but could not calculate in the Hillary supporters who DID stay home. Telephone polls in June and near the convention found more HIllary supporters planning to stay home than planning to vote for McCain. 

Pls distinguish between Obama's decision to reject the Clinton/Obama ticket -- and Obama supporters' choice to support him in that decision. That would have been a good time for Obama supporters who also cared about feminism, to speak out and urge him to accept Hillary's win/win offer (a feminine solution).

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